Issue 6: Status Check 2005: An Examination of the Trends and Influential Factors Contributing to Subscription Renewal and Cancellation
Trends in Journal Subscription Renewals and Cancellations: 2004-2005
Joshua Clarke Head of Research and Research Analyst 617-395-4054This report provides a detailed example of trends impacting journal subscription cancellation and renewal for scholarly publishers as identified by Publishers Communication Group, Inc. (PCG) between July 2004 and June 2005. Publishers can use this information and the strategic suggestions provided as a starting point for considering the impact of such research on their strategy. Results from the previous year (July 2003 through June 2004) are also available in the Resources section of our site.
Methodology
From July 2004 through June 2005, Publishers Communication Group, Inc. completed 40 Non-Renewal Campaigns for publishers of scholarly content. During these campaigns, PCG determined if a subscription was renewed, cancelled or pending and asked additional questions to gain insight into the reasons that led up to this decision. The geographic scope of the campaigns included calls to subscribers in North America, South America, Europe, Australia, Southern Africa, and the Middle East and included both public and private universities and colleges, corporations and not-for-profit institutions, government agencies, hospitals, and individual subscribers. For the purposes of data collection, analysis and presentation, PCG included only those calls that were successfully completed, as defined as when appropriate and authoritative information has been gathered from the subscriber or a representative of the subscribing institution. All data presented represents results for individual journals.
Sample data analyzed
The sample data presented here represents results for 8,607 subscriptions and excludes the results of two campaigns determined to be outliers. This data is provided as an example and there is no suggestion, implied or otherwise, that it will predict the results of any given campaign.
Results
For the data set of 8,607 subscriptions examined, the following results were reported:
- 2,996 subscriptions were renewed
- 4,827 subscriptions were cancelled
- Decisions are pending regarding 784 subscriptions
© 2005 Publishers Communications Group, Inc. Reproduction strictly prohibited.
Renewed
In the case of 35% of subscriptions, the subscription was renewed. In many of these cases, the institution contacted changed subscription agencies, resulting in confusion about their current subscription status. In other cases, the librarian contacted indicated that the failure to renew was an error or oversight and the institution has once again renewed their subscription.
Pending
Renewal decisions regarding 9% of subscriptions presented in this sample are pending. In these cases, librarians are currently assessing their needs to determine if they will be renewing their subscription. Many librarians contacted reported that they were not aware that their subscription had lapsed and were grateful for the call bringing this issue to their attention. In a number of cases, the renewal decision is made in conjunction with faculty members, entire academic departments, and multidisciplinary committees. Publishers Communication Group, Inc. has continued to observe that typically half of all pending subscriptions eventually turn into renewals for our clients.
Cancelled
56% of the subscriptions included in this sample were cancelled. Many factors influence an institution’s decision to cancel a subscription. Shrinking library budgets created a situation that called for a reduction in the library’s collection at a substantial number of institutions contacted. While budget problems are the sole reason that a number of subscriptions were cancelled, Publishers Communication Group, Inc. believes that it is important to determine why the specific subscription in question was cancelled in lieu of another subscription. When the topic is explored in greater detail, the librarians contacted explained that because of reductions in collection budgets, they were forced to institute a number of cost-cutting exercises including usage studies, faculty surveys and the elimination of duplicate subscriptions. The reasons for cancellation presented in the Tally of Responses clearly demonstrates that these factors contributed significantly to the cancellations identified in this sample.
| Reasons for Cancellation 2004-2005 | % |
| The journal received low use | 22% |
| The journal's content is available electronically | 22% |
| The library's budget prevented a renewal | 15% |
| The journal's subject matter was no longer relevant | 9% |
| The subscriber is no longer with the organization | 6% |
| The cancellation was based on faculty recommendation | 5% |
| The reason for cancellation was unknown | 4% |
| The subscription was a duplicate | 4% |
| The price of the journal is too high | 4% |
| The library or institution is closed | 3% |
| There is no current record of having a subscription | 2% |
| Other miscellaneous responses* | 4% |
Conclusion
The Reasons for Cancellation presented above point to several significant trends that continue to impact scholarly publishers’ subscription base. If publishers address these pressing issues in a timely and appropriate manner, they could work to counteract the loss of subscribers they may be experiencing.Low Usage
22% of all cancellations in this sample were motivated by low usage. In the majority of these cases, the low usage was not identified earlier because there was not a need to conduct a usage study in the past. The continuing budget problems, coupled with increasing subscription rates resulted in many libraries conducting usage studies and eliminating journals that may not have been eliminated in the past. While low use is occasionally attributed to poor-quality content, librarians more commonly cite the changing focus of researchers as the main reason for low usage. Also, librarians have indicated that the advanced and specialized nature of certain journals’ content can lead to low use among certain populations despite the high quality of the research included because the level of specialization limits the potential user population.
By analyzing information about institutions that have reported low usage of their journals, publishers can customize their sales approach and consider alternative methods of increasing usage at specific institutions. Also, publishers may consider the possibility that their journal suffers from an inherent editorial weakness that could be addressed in order to increase usage.
Electronic Access
Another common reason why a subscription was cancelled was due to electronic availability of the content; 22% of all cancellations reported in this sample were the result of this factor. In these cases, the librarians had no criticism of the content and many indicated that they tend to cancel print subscriptions when the journal is available electronically. Most often, librarians reported that the journal contents was available electronically through aggregators and databases that the library already had access to, though it was also common for institutions to gain electronic access directly through the publisher. Publishers Communication Group, Inc. has observed this trend and the increasing impact of electronic access on paid print subscriptions.
Librarians anticipate that the change in format will result in higher use of the journal as a result of the increased convenience afforded by desktop access. Reflecting on the theme of reduced library budgets, it has also been a common trend for an institution to change to the electronic version of a journal subscription when cost-savings are possible.
This data allows a publisher to clearly understand the rate at which client institutions are moving to electronic access of subscriptions and their reasons for making the format change. Also, this information is invaluable as publishers continue to make strategic decisions related to the format of content delivery.
Budget Problems
Shrinking or flat library budgets continue to be a leading cause of subscription cancellations, resulting in 15% of cancellations in this sample. In many of these cases, librarians explained that the decision to cancel the subscription in question was solely made as a cost-cutting measure and did not necessarily reflect negatively on the quality of the content in the journal cancelled. Others indicated that there was not an urgent need for the subscribed-to information; in many cases, faculty members have made the decision to order journal articles through document delivery services in order to reduce expenditures despite the fact that this will result in a delay in accessing the information.
It is important to note that in cases where the content was of interest, the potential for a renewal often exists if the funds become available. By contacting these clients directly, publishers can raise librarians’ awareness of their journals and can take the first step in securing new subscriptions and renewals when and if the financial resources of the libraries increase.
Non-Renewal Campaigns are an important tool for recapturing lapsed subscriptions and collecting invaluable market research on the purchasing behaviors, trends and preferences of clients. It is only when the information gathered through a Non-Renewal Campaign is integrated into a broader marketing and promotion campaign that publishers can appropriately respond to the changing market dynamics impacting scholarly publishing.