Issue 7: Spring/Summer 2006
International Library Budget Trends: 2006
Joshua Clarke Head of Research and Research Analyst 617-395-4054Publishers Communication Group administered a brief survey to librarians outside of North America in late 2005 to learn about anticipated changes in spending on library materials for 2006 and to specifically learn about expected serials and electronic resources expenditures. The survey was administered to two hundred librarians at institutions throughout Europe, Australia, and Asia, representing a diverse sample population of countries including: Australia, Belgium, China, Denmark, France, Ireland, Israel, Italy, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland, Spain, and Taiwan.
Key findings include:
· 23.1% expect a decrease in overall materials budgets for 2006, although the anticipated decreases are less than were expected for 2005
· 58.7% are planning on an increase in serials budgets for 2006, although many reported modest increases which may not cover subscription cost increases
· Spending on electronic resources continues to account for a significant percentage of serials budgets and for 2006, 61% plan on spending more than 20% of their serials budget on electronic resources.
Overall Materials Budgets
Materials budgets for 2006 are expected to experience a bit more turmoil than in 2005. 44.6% of the librarians surveyed reported that spending would remain unchanged, down from the 59.5% who anticipated level funding in 2005. Although the high percentage of survey participants expecting level materials budgets for 2005 suggested stabilization amid seemingly endless budget cuts and collection weeding, the upswing in 2006 indicates that last year’s results may have been an anomaly. Unfortunately, the change in the percentage of participants reporting level funding cannot be attributed to increases in spending. Another dramatic shift for 2006 is the percentage of respondents reporting a reduction in their overall materials budget. 23.1% expected that their materials budgets would decline, a significant increase over the 14.2% who expected a budget reduction in 2005.
In a sign that the news about materials budgets is not entirely negative, this survey also identified a slight increase in the number of libraries where the overall materials budget will increase from the previous year; 32.3% anticipate an increase for 2006, up from 26.3% in 2005.
Another positive indicator is the changes in expected percentage increase or decrease for those anticipating a change in their budget. In 2006, 65% of those reporting a reduction in the materials budget are expecting a reduction of between only 1% and 5%. This is a sizeable shift from 2005 when only 35% of those with a reduction expected the loss to be this low. Similarly, each of the other ranges of budget reductions was lower in 2006 than in 2005. For example, 19% reported reductions of between 6% and 10%, while in 2005, 48% reporting reductions in this range. Also 12% reported reductions of between 11% and 20%, down from the 17% anticipating a reduction in this range in 2005.
For those reporting materials budget increases for 2006, the differences with 2005 are less dramatic but it is important to highlight that this year, 5% of those who expected an increase in their materials budget anticipate that the change will be greater than 41%.
Chart 1. Expected Percentage Change in Materials Budgets
Serials Budgets
Although this survey indicates a continued downward trend for overall materials budgets, serials budgets appear to be robust again in 2006. As we indicated in 2005, serials continue to absorb more significant percentages of overall materials budgets, in large part a response to demand from library patrons and faculty members. Many librarians we have spoken with, especially those working with STM materials, but it is also true of those working with Social Science and Humanities materials, feel that serials, both single titles and larger packages or databases, tend to provide more return on the expenditure. Serials tend to be the most visible and most often used components of the library collection, especially for STM materials, and as such, serials budgets are continuing to grow.
This trend is apparent based on the fact that 58.7% of the respondents to this survey reported that their institution would be increasing the amount of funds allocated for purchasing serials in 2006, an increase over the 49.2% who reported the same in 2005. In general, the distribution of increases reported were similar to the results from 2005. However, it is important to highlight that the percentage of those expecting an increase of between 1% and 5% increased in 2006 to account for 33% of the expected changes. This figure suggests that although more libraries are increasing serials expenditures, those increases are more modest this year and in many cases may not cover increases in existing subscription costs. In fact, according to the Serials Price Increase Report published by Swets Information Services in January 2006, the average increase in 2004-2005 across publishers from throughout the world and covering all disciplines was more than 6%. Given this information, it seems that even with increases of between 1% and 5%, these survey respondents will not be able to keep pace with rising subscription costs.
The increase in serials budgets is not universal, however, and 14.0% of those contacted reported that expenditures on serials are expected to decline in 2006, although this is a drop from the 19.7% who reported a decrease for 2005.
The remaining 27.2% of those participating in the survey expect their serials budgets to remain the same in 2006.
Chart 2. Expected Percentage Change in Serials Budgets
Electronic Resources
Although some institutions have separate budgets for electronic resources, the majority of the librarians Publishers Communication Group spoke with explained that electronic resources are funded by the general serials budget. Only 6% of those contacted this year reported that none of the serials budget is spent on electronic resources, down from 20% in 2005. Once again, this includes not only institutions that do not have an electronic resources budget, but also those institutions with a unique budget for these items.
Spending on electronic resources continues to represent a significant portion of serials budgets and there is no information available that would indicate that this would change in the near future. In a repeat of the results from last year, the most common amount of the serials budget dedicated to electronic resources was 11%-20%; 19.6% of those participating in this survey indicated that their institution’s spending level was within this range. In a dramatic shift, 61% of respondents indicated that more than 20% of their current serials budget is spent on electronic resources. Last year, 45% of respondents fell into this category. Furthermore, last year only about 15% of those surveyed reported that they would spend more than 50% of their serials budget on electronic resources. For 2006, 29% expected to spend at least 50% of their serials budget on electronic resources. In fact, 12% plan on spending more than 70% of the serials budget on these resources in 2006.
When considered along with the relatively modest increases in serials budgets expected at libraries surveyed, it is clear that the increase in spending on electronic resources will continue to impact libraries’ ability to maintain print subscriptions and will encourage libraries to consolidate subscriptions when aggregated electronic access is available.