Issue 8: Spring 2007
Trends in Journal Subscription Renewal and Cancellation
Emilie Delquie Head of Research and Research Analyst 617-395-4090This report provides a detailed example of trends impacting journal subscription cancellation and renewal for scholarly publishers as identified by Publishers Communication Group, Inc. (PCG) between July 2005 and June 2006. Publishers can use this information and the strategic suggestions provided as a starting point for considering the impact of such research on their strategy.
Methodology
From July 2005 through June 2006, Publishers Communication Group, Inc. completed over 35 Non-Renewal Campaigns for publishers of scholarly content. During these campaigns, PCG determined if a subscription was renewed, cancelled or pending and asked additional questions to gain insight into the reasons that led up to this decision.
The geographic scope of the campaigns included calls to subscribers in North America, South America, Europe, Australia, Southern Africa, and the Middle East and included both public and private universities and colleges, corporations and not-for-profit institutions, government agencies, hospitals, and individual subscribers. For the purposes of data collection, analysis and presentation, PCG included only those calls that were successfully completed, as defined as when appropriate and authoritative information has been gathered from the subscriber or a representative of the subscribing institution. All data presented represents results for individual journals.
Sample Data Analyzed
The sample data presented here represents results for 7,004 subscriptions and excludes the results of campaigns determined to be outliers. This data is provided as an example and there is no suggestion, implied or otherwise, that it will predict the results of any given campaign.
When considered along with the relatively modest increases in serials budgets expected at libraries surveyed, it is clear that the increase in spending on electronic resources will continue to impact libraries’ ability to maintain print subscriptions and will encourage libraries to consolidate subscriptions when aggregated electronic access is available.
Results
For the data set of 7,004 subscriptions examined, the following results were reported:
- 2,475 subscriptions were renewed
- 3,748 subscriptions were cancelled
- Decisions are pending regarding 781 subscriptions
© 2007 Publishers Communications Group, Inc. Reproduction strictly prohibited.
Renewed
In the case of 35% of subscriptions, the subscription was renewed. In many of these cases, the institution contacted changed subscription agencies, resulting in confusion about their current subscription status. In other cases, the librarian contacted indicated that the failure to renew was an error or oversight and the institution has once again renewed their subscription.
Pending
Renewal decisions regarding 11% of subscriptions presented in this sample are pending. In these cases, librarians were assessing their needs to determine if they would be renewing their subscription. Many librarians contacted reported that they were not aware that their subscription had lapsed and were grateful for the call bringing this issue to their attention. In a number of cases, the renewal decision is made in conjunction with faculty members, entire academic departments, and multidisciplinary committees. Publishers Communication Group, Inc. has observed that typically half of all pending subscriptions eventually turn into renewals for our clients.
Cancelled
54% of the subscriptions included in this sample were cancelled. Many factors influence an institution’s decision to cancel a subscription. Shrinking library budgets and the increasing availability of online content has created a situation that called for redistribution of resources in the library’s collection at a substantial number of institutions contacted. However, Publishers Communication Group, Inc. believes that it is important to determine why the specific subscription in question was cancelled in lieu of another subscription. When the topic is explored in greater detail, the librarians contacted explained that because of reductions in collection budgets, they were forced to institute a number of cost-cutting exercises including usage studies, faculty surveys and the elimination of duplicate subscriptions in several format. The reasons for cancellation presented in the Tally of Responses below clearly demonstrates that these factors contributed significantly to the cancellations identified in this sample.
| Tally of Responses | 2005-2006 |
|
The journal’s content is available electronically |
20.22% |
|
The journal received low use |
19.13% |
|
The main subscriber is no longer with the organization |
11.02% |
|
The library’s budget prevented a renewal |
9.58% |
|
Other project-specific reasons* |
8.99% |
|
The journal’s subject matter was no longer relevant |
8.11% |
|
The cancellation was based on faculty recommendation |
7.39% |
|
The reason for cancellation was unknown |
3.95% |
|
The subscription was a duplicate |
3.84% |
|
The price of the journal is too high |
3.07% |
|
The library or institution is closed |
2.51% |
|
© 2007 Publishers Communications Group, Inc. Reproduction strictly prohibited.
Conclusion
The Reasons for Cancellation presented above point to several significant trends that continue to impact scholarly publishers’ subscription base. If publishers address these pressing issues in a timely and appropriate manner, they could work to counteract the loss of subscribers they may be experiencing.
Electronic Access
The most common reason why a subscription was cancelled was due to electronic availability of the content; 20.22% of all cancellations reported in this sample were the result of this factor. It is important to note that this factor has an increasingly significant impact on renewal decisions in libraries worldwide and it will be important to look at the upcoming 2006-2007 data to continue to quantify the speed of this shift. An increasing number of librarians indicated that they tend to cancel print subscriptions when the journal is available electronically. Most often, librarians reported that the journal content was available electronically through aggregators and databases that the library already had access to, though it was also common for institutions to gain electronic access directly through the publisher. Librarians anticipate that the change in format will result in higher use of the journal as a result of the increased convenience afforded by desktop access. Reflecting on the theme of reduced library budgets, it has also been a common trend for an institution to change to the electronic version of a journal subscription when cost-savings are possible.
This data allows a publisher to clearly understand the rate at which client institutions are moving to electronic access of subscriptions and their reasons for making the format change. Also, this information is invaluable as publishers continue to make strategic decisions related to the format of content delivery.
Low Usage
19.13% of all cancellations in this sample were motivated by low usage. The continuing budget problems, coupled with increasing subscription rates resulted in many libraries conducting usage studies and eliminating journals that may not have been eliminated in the past. While low use is occasionally attributed to poor-quality content, librarians more commonly cite the changing focus of researchers or the decreasing consultation of print material in general as the main reasons for low usage. Also, librarians have indicated that the advanced and specialized nature of certain journals’ content can lead to low use among certain populations despite the high quality of the research included.
By analyzing information about institutions that have reported low usage of their journals, publishers can customize their sales approach and consider alternative methods of increasing usage at specific institutions. Also, publishers may consider the possibility that their journal suffers from an inherent editorial weakness that could be addressed in order to increase usage.
Non-Renewal Campaigns are an important tool for recapturing lapsed subscriptions and collecting invaluable market research on the purchasing behaviors, trends and preferences of clients. It is only when the information gathered through a Non-Renewal Campaign is integrated into a broader marketing and promotion campaign that publishers can appropriately respond to the changing market dynamics impacting scholarly publishing.